ADHS releases metrics to determine when bars & nightclubs can reopen

It looks like it’ll be a long time before some of the Valley’s bars and nightclubs – which were closed for the second time July 29 – will be able to reopen.

On Monday, the Arizona Department of Health Services finally released the metrics to determine when bars, some restaurants, gyms, and movie theaters can open their doors again.

They’re a little complicated, but I’ll see if I can explain them. Since this is a food and drink blog, I’ll focus only on restaurants and bars.

The metrics and spread stages

The state is using three metrics as its benchmarks:

• The number of covid-19 cases;
• The percent of positivity;
• The percent of people with covid-like illness.

The first step is to figure out what stage of covid-19 spread your ‘‘community’’ has, based on all three of these metrics. In this case, ‘‘community’’ means county.

Each county will be classified in one of three stages, based on two-week data:

• Substantial spread: More than 100 cases per 100,000 people, percent positivity over 10%, and covid-like illness over 10%.
• Moderate spread: 10-100 cases per 100,000 people, percent positivity from 5-10%, and covid-like illness from 5-10%;
• Minimum spread: Less than 10 cases per 100,000 people, percent positivity under 5%, and covid-like illness under 5%;

Now here’s the catch: Because there’s a lag in reporting cases and test results, ADHS posts updates on its website dashboard every Thursday from two-week periods after a two-week delay.

In other words, the latest data update on Aug. 6 was from the period that ran from July 12-25.

Data from this week will be part of the two-week period from Aug. 2-15 that won’t be posted until Aug. 27. It also will be part of the Aug. 9-22 period that will be posted Sept. 3.

Benchmarks for bars

Bars and nightclubs are divided into two categories – those ‘‘providing dine-in services’’ and those ‘‘not operating as a restaurant.’’

Maricopa County currently is in the “substantial spread” stage in all three metrics, meaning all bars and nightclubs must remain closed.

If the county is able to meet all three two-week benchmarks to move into the “moderate spread” stage:

• Bars providing dine-in services will be able to open at 50% capacity if they convert to ‘‘restaurant service;’’
• Bars not operating as a restaurant must remain closed.

If the county is able to meet all three two-week benchmarks to move into the “minimal spread” stage:

• Bars providing dine-in services will remain at 50% capacity but will be allowed to shift to ‘‘bar service’’ if positivity is under 3%;
• Bars not operating as a restaurant will be able to open at 50% capacity if positivity is under 3%.

Simple, huh?

If you really want to dive into the details, you get see the state’s explanatory PDF here.